Closed-form expressions to Gompertz-Makeham life expectancies: a historical note / Expressões de forma fechada para as expectativas de vida de Gompertz-Makeham: uma nota histórica / Expresiones de forma cerrada a las esperanzas de vida de Gompertz-Makeham: una nota histórica

Abstract Results well known in the actuarial community about closed-form expressions to Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham life expectancies for a person aged x are still being independently rediscovered to this day. This note seeks to acknowledge previous results about closed-form expressions to Gompertz-Makeham life expectancies, especially in the actuarial science field, hoping to stimulate interdisciplinarity and provide the background for further developments, especially since the derivation of closed-form expressions for life expectancy (and annuities) based on particular mortality laws are matters of interest for multiple fields such as actuarial science, biology, demography, statistics among others.

Resumo Resultados bem conhecidos pela comunidade atuarial sobre expressões de forma fechada para esperança de vida de Gompertz e Gompertz-Makeham para uma pessoa de idade x ainda estão sendo redescobertos de forma independente nos dias atuais. Esta nota visa fornecer algum reconhecimento aos resultados anteriores sobre expressões de forma fechada para expectativa de vida de Gompertz e Gompertz-Makeham, especialmente no campo das ciências atuariais, na esperança de estimular a interdisciplinaridade e fornecer o pano de fundo para novos desenvolvimentos, em especial porque a derivação de expressões de forma fechadas para expectativa de vida (e anuidades) com base em leis de mortalidade despertam o interesse de várias áreas, como ciências atuariais, biologia, demografia, estatística, entre outras.

Resumen Los resultados bien conocidos por la comunidad actuarial sobre las expresiones de forma cerrada de las esperanzas de vida de Gompertz y Gompertz-Makeham para una persona de edad x todavía se están redescubriendo de forma independiente en la actualidad. Esta nota pretende reconocer algunos resultados anteriores sobre expresiones cerradas para la esperanza de vida de Gompertz y Gompertz-Makeham, en especial en el campo de las ciencias actuariales, con la esperanza de fomentar la interdisciplinariedad y proporcionar el telón de fondo para futuros desarrollos, sobre todo desde que la derivación de expresiones cerradas para la esperanza de vida (y anualidades) basado en leyes de mortalidad despertó el interés de varias áreas, como las ciencias actuariales, biología, demografía, estadística, entre otras.

Local Control After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Liver Tumors.

PURPOSE: To quantitatively evaluate published experiences with hepatic stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), to determine local control rates after treatment of primary and metastatic liver tumors and to examine whether outcomes are affected by SBRT dosing regimen. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We identified published articles that reported local control rates after SBRT for primary or metastatic liver tumors. Biologically effective doses (BEDs) were calculated for each dosing regimen using the linear-quadratic equation. We excluded series in which a wide range of BEDs was used. Individual lesion data for local control were extracted from actuarial survival curves, and data were aggregated to form a single dataset. Actuarial local control curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method after grouping lesions by disease type and BED (<100 Gy10 vs >100 Gy10). Comparisons were made using log-rank testing. RESULTS: Thirteen articles met all inclusion criteria and formed the dataset for this analysis. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year actuarial local control rates after SBRT for primary liver tumors (n = 431) were 93%, 89%, and 86%, respectively. Lower 1- (90%), 2- (79%), and 3-year (76%) actuarial local control rates were observed for liver metastases (n = 290, log-rank P = .011). Among patients treated with SBRT for primary liver tumors, there was no evidence that local control is influenced by BED within the range of schedules used. For liver metastases, on the other hand, outcomes were significantly better for lesions treated with BEDs exceeding 100 Gy10 (3-year local control 93%) than for those treated with BEDs of ≤100 Gy10 (3-year local control 65%, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Stereotactic body radiation therapy for primary liver tumors provides high rates of durable local control, with no clear evidence for a dose-response relationship among commonly utilized schedules. Excellent local control rates are also seen after SBRT for liver metastases when BEDs of >100 Gy10 are utilized.

Volumetric and actuarial analysis of brain necrosis in proton therapy using a novel mixture cure model.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: High-dose fractionated radiotherapy is often necessary to achieve long-term tumor control in several types of tumors involving or within close proximity to the brain. There is limited data to guide on optimal constraints to the adjacent nontarget brain. This investigation explored the significance of the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution of passive scattering proton therapy to the brain with other clinicopathological factors on the development of symptomatic radiation necrosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All patients with head and neck, skull base, or intracranial tumors who underwent proton therapy (minimum prescription dose of 59.4 Gy(RBE)) with collateral moderate to high dose radiation exposure to the nontarget brain were retrospectively reviewed. A mixture cure model with respect to necrosis-free survival was used to derive estimates for the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model while adjusting for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Of 179 identified patients, 83 patients had intracranial tumors and 96 patients had primary extracranial tumors. The optimal dose measure obtained to describe the occurrence of radiation necrosis was the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) with parameter a = 9. The best-fit parameters of logistic NTCP models revealed D50 = 57.7 Gy for intracranial tumors, D50 = 39.5 Gy for extracranial tumors, and γ50 = 2.5 for both tumor locations. Multivariable analysis revealed EUD and primary tumor location to be the strongest predictors of brain radiation necrosis. CONCLUSION: In the current clinical volumetric data analyses with multivariable modelling, EUD was identified as an independent and strong predictor for brain radiation necrosis from proton therapy.

Dread and Risk Elimination Premium for the Value of a Statistical Life.

The value of a statistical life (VSL) is a widely used measure for the value of mortality risk reduction. As VSL should reflect preferences and attitudes to risk, there are reasons to believe that it varies depending on the type of risk involved. It has been argued that cancer should be considered a "dread disease," which supports the use of a "cancer premium." The objective of this study is to investigate the existence of a cancer premium (for pancreatic cancer and multiple myeloma) in relation to road traffic accidents, sudden cardiac arrest, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Data were collected from 500 individuals in the Swedish general population of 50-74-year olds using a web-based questionnaire. Preferences were elicited using the contingent valuation method, and a split-sample design was applied to test scale sensitivity. VSL differs significantly between contexts, being highest for ALS and lowest for road traffic accidents. A premium (92-113%) for cancer was found in relation to road traffic accidents. The premium was higher for cancer with a shorter time from diagnosis to death. A premium was also found for sudden cardiac arrest (73%) and ALS (118%) in relation to road traffic accidents. Eliminating risk was associated with a premium of around 20%. This study provides additional evidence that there exist a dread premium and risk elimination premium. These factors should be considered when searching for an appropriate value for economic evaluation and health technology assessment.

Changing odds of survival over time among patients undergoing surgical resection of extremity soft tissue sarcoma.

BACKGROUND: While survival after surgical treatment of extremity soft tissue sarcoma (STS) is traditionally reported as actuarial survival, conditional survival (CS) may be more clinically relevant as it accounts for time already survived. We compared actuarial survival and CS of STS patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed 567 patients who underwent surgery for localized extremity STS. Actuarial survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate factors associated with disease-specific survival. Five-year CS (CS5) estimates at "χ" year(s) after surgery were calculated as CS5 = S(χ + 5)/S(χ). RESULTS: Whereas actuarial survival decreased over time, CS5 increased. The postsurgical 1-, 3-, and 5-year CS5 values were 84.5%, 90.0%, and 93.8%, respectively, whereas the 6-, 8-, and 10-year actuarial survival rates were 82.0%, 79.4%, and 78.5%, respectively. The calculated CS5 exceeded actuarial survival especially in patients with risk factors such as large tumor size and Federation Nationale des Centers de Lutte Contre le Cancer (FNCLCC) grades 2 and 3 tumors. Patients with tumor size ≥5 cm had an actuarial survival of 73.9% at 10 years compared to a CS5 of 95.4% in patients alive at 5 years. Likewise, patients with FNCLCC grade 3 tumors had an actuarial survival of 71.1% at 10 years compared to a CS5 of 96.0% in patients alive at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Survival estimation by determination of CS can be dynamic and accurate especially in high-risk patients. CS can be useful for survival prediction and clinical decision making in extremity STS patients.

The Value of a Statistical Life for Risk-Averse and Risk-Seeking Individuals.

This article estimates the value of a statistical life (VSL) for Chile under the hedonic wage method while accounting for individual risk preferences. Two alternative measures of risk aversion are used. First, risk aversion is directly measured using survey measures of preferences over hypothetical gambles, and second, over observed individual behaviors that may proxy for risk preferences, such as smoking status, are used. I reconcile the results with a theoretical model of economic behavior that predicts how the wage-risk tradeoff changes as risk aversion differs across individuals. The VSL estimates range between 0.61 and 8.68 million dollars. The results using smoking behavior as a proxy for risk attitudes are consistent with previous findings. However, directly measuring risk aversion corrects the wage-risk tradeoff estimation bias in the opposite direction. The results are robust to other observed measures of risk aversion such as drinking behavior and stock investments. Results suggest that, consistent with the literature that connects smoking behavior with labor market outcomes, smoking status could be capturing poor health productivity effect in addition to purely risk preferences.

Análise da mortalidade perinatal e seus fatores associados / Análisis de la mortalidad perinatal y sus factores asociados / Analysis of perinatal mortality and its associated factors

Objetivo analisar a Mortalidade Perinatal e seus fatores associados no estado do Paraná, Brasil. Método pesquisa transversal analítica, com dados secundários do Sistema de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos e Mortalidade. Foi calculada a Taxa de Mortalidade Perinatal, entre 2006 e 2014, e analisadas as variáveis independentes relativas aos óbitos com o teste qui-quadrado . Resultados a mortalidade perinatal apresentou redução de 11,7%, mantendo a predominância dos óbitos fetais em relação aos neonatais precoces, bem como significância em relação à escolaridade materna (p=0,016) e o baixo peso (p=0,000). Conclusão identificou-se que a Taxa de Mortalidade Perinatal sofreu redução contínua e lenta no Paraná, durante nove anos.

Objetivo analizar la Mortalidad Perinatal y sus factores asociados en el estado de Paraná, Brasil. Método Investigación transversal analítica, con datos secundarios del Sistema de Información sobre Nacidos Vivos y Mortalidad. Se calculó la Tasa de Mortalidad Perinatal, entre 2006 y 2014, y se analizaron las variables independientes relativas a los óbitos con la prueba Chi-cuadrado . Resultados la mortalidad perinatal presentó reducción de 11,7%, manteniendo la predominancia de los óbitos fetales en relación a los neonatales precoces, así como la significancia en relación a la escolaridad materna (p=0,016) y al bajo peso (p=0,000). Conclusión se identificó que la Tasa de Mortalidad Perinatal ha sufrido reducción continua y lenta en Paraná, durante nueve años.

Objective to analyze Perinatal Mortality and its associated factors in the state of Paraná, Brazil. Method cross-sectional analytical research, using secondary data from the Information System on Live Births and Mortality. The Perinatal Mortality Rate was calculated between 2006 and 2014 and analyzed the independent variables related to deaths with the chi-square test. Results Perinatal Mortality decreased by 11.7%, maintaining the predominance of fetal deaths in relation to early neonates, as well as significance in relation to maternal schooling (p=0.016) and low weight (p=0.000). Conclusion it was identified that the Perinatal Mortality Rate suffered a continuous and slow reduction during the period of nine years in Paraná.

Comparative Study of Electrical Stimulation of the Heart with VDD and DDD Pacemakers as to the Evolution to Atrial Fibrillation.

INTRODUCTION: The pacemaker implantation VDD is considered simpler, faster, less expensive and causes fewer complications compared to DDD. However, the VDD pacemaker has not been widely used in many centers, perhaps for fear of dysfunction of the sinus node and the reduction of atrial sensitivity by the pacemaker during follow-up after implantation. OBJECTIVE: To compare patients with DDD and VDD pacemakers regarding the evolution of chronic atrial fibrillation (AF) and length of stay outside this postoperative arrhythmia. METHODS: It was included 158 patients with dual chamber pacemakers, 48 DDD and 110 VDD. Follow-up period: between January 1, 1999 and December 31, 2015. The mean follow-up of patients with DDD was 5.35 years and the VDD, 4.74 years. The percentage of each group (DDD and VDD) which evolved to AF during follow-up was assessed. Also, it was made an actuarial study with the respective curves indicating the time free from AF for each group. Patients were classified according to the diagnosis that led to pacemaker implantation and the degree of heart failure. RESULTS: The percentage of patients who developed AF was higher in DDD group (10.42%) than in VDD group (6.36%), but without statistical significance. Patients with DDD and VDD remained free of AF for similar period. CONCLUSION: Considering the results, the VDD pacemaker continues to be a good option to the DDD for routine use in cases properly indicated.

Comparative study of electrical stimulation of the heart with vdd and ddd pacemakers as to the evolution to atrial fibrillation

Abstract Introduction: The pacemaker implantation VDD is considered simpler, faster, less expensive and causes fewer complications compared to DDD. However, the VDD pacemaker has not been widely used in many centers, perhaps for fear of dysfunction of the sinus node and the reduction of atrial sensitivity by the pacemaker during follow-up after implantation. Objective: To compare patients with DDD and VDD pacemakers regarding the evolution of chronic atrial fibrillation (AF) and length of stay outside this postoperative arrhythmia. Methods: It was included 158 patients with dual chamber pacemakers, 48 DDD and 110 VDD. Follow-up period: between January 1, 1999 and December 31, 2015. The mean follow-up of patients with DDD was 5.35 years and the VDD, 4.74 years. The percentage of each group (DDD and VDD) which evolved to AF during follow-up was assessed. Also, it was made an actuarial study with the respective curves indicating the time free from AF for each group. Patients were classified according to the diagnosis that led to pacemaker implantation and the degree of heart failure. Results: The percentage of patients who developed AF was higher in DDD group (10.42%) than in VDD group (6.36%), but without statistical significance. Patients with DDD and VDD remained free of AF for similar period. Conclusion: Considering the results, the VDD pacemaker continues to be a good option to the DDD for routine use in cases properly indicated.

Outcomes of Active Surveillance after Initial Surveillance Prostate Biopsy.

PURPOSE: We analyzed the rates of disease reclassification at initial and subsequent surveillance prostate biopsy as well as the treatment outcomes of deferred therapy among men on active surveillance for prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From a prospective database we identified 300 men on active surveillance who had undergone initial surveillance prostate biopsy, with or without confirmatory biopsy, within 1 year of diagnosis. Of these men 261 (87%) were classified as having NCCN very low or low risk disease at diagnosis. Disease reclassification on active surveillance was defined as the presence of 50% or more positive cores and/or surveillance prostate biopsy Gleason score upgrading. Patients with type I disease reclassification included those with any surveillance prostate biopsy Gleason score upgrading, while patients with type II reclassification had to have primary Gleason pattern 4-5 disease on surveillance prostate biopsy. Outcomes after initial surveillance prostate biopsy were evaluated using actuarial analyses. RESULTS: At the time of initial surveillance prostate biopsy 49 (16%) and 19 (6%) patients had type I and type II disease reclassification, respectively. Those who underwent confirmatory biopsy had significantly reduced rates of type I (9% vs 23%, p=0.001) and type II (3% vs 9%, p=0.01) reclassification at initial surveillance prostate biopsy. For the 251 patients without disease reclassification at initial surveillance prostate biopsy the 2-year rates of subsequent type I and II reclassification were 17% (95% CI 0-24) and 3% (95% CI 0.1-7), respectively. For the 93 patients who received deferred therapy the 5-year biochemical progression-free probability was 89% (95% CI 79-98), including 95%, 82% and 70% among those without, and those with type I and type II disease reclassification, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients on active surveillance with stable disease at the time of initial surveillance prostate biopsy may be appropriate candidates for less intensive surveillance prostate biopsy schedules.

Single center experience of aortic bypass graft for aortic arch obstruction in children.

The purpose of this study is to access the outcomes of aortic bypass graft placement in children. This is a retrospective review of all children having aortic bypass graft placement for aortic arch obstruction for the first time between 1982 and 2013 at a single institution. The actuarial survival and the freedom from aortic arch reoperation were calculated and compared between the groups. Seventy consecutive children underwent aortic bypass graft placements. The median age and body weight at the operation were 14 days and 3.6 kg. There were 7 early deaths, 6 late deaths, and 7 heart transplants during the median follow-up of 10.8 years (0.0-31.5 years). The actuarial transplant free survival was 64.7 % at 20 years and the freedom from aortic arch reoperation was 50.5 % at 10 years. Between the children younger than 1 year old and older than 1 year old, there were significant differences in actuarial transplant free survival (56.4 vs. 100 % at 15 years, p = 0.0042) and in the freedom from aortic arch reoperation (18.7 vs. 100 % at 10 years, p < 0.001). The children who received aortic bypass graft larger than 16 mm in size had no aortic arch reoperation at 15 years. The aortic bypass graft placement for aortic arch obstruction can be done with low mortality and morbidity for children who can receive bypass graft larger than 16 mm in size. However, it should be avoided for the neonates and infants except selected situations.

Changing Odds of Survival Over Time among Patients Undergoing Surgical Resection of Gallbladder Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: While survival after malignancies is traditionally reported as actuarial survival, conditional survival (CS) may be more clinically relevant by accounting for "accrued" survival time as time progresses. We sought to compare actuarial and CS among patients with gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) . METHODS: A total of 312 patients who underwent curative intent surgery for GBC between 2000 and 2014 were identified using a multi-institutional database. Overall survival (OS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. CS was calculated as the probability of surviving an additional 3 years at year "x" after surgery using the formula CS3 = S(x+3)/Sx. RESULTS: Among all patients, the median actuarial OS was 24.8 months (IQR 13.3-88.9). While actuarial survival decreased over time, 3-year CS (CS3) increased, with CS3 at 2 years after surgery noted to be 61.8 % compared with the 5-year actuarial OS of 31.6 %. Factors associated with reduced actuarial OS were positive margin status (HR 3.61, 95 % CI 2.47-5.26), increasing tumor size (HR = 1.02, 95 % CI 1.01-1.02), higher tumor grade (HR 2.98, 95 % CI 1.47-6.04), residual disease at repeat resection (HR = 2.78, 95 % CI 1.49-3.49, p < 0.001), and lymph node metastasis (HR = 1.95, 95 % CI 1.39-2.75, all p < 0.001). The calculated CS3 exceeded the actuarial survival within each high-risk patient subgroup. For example, patients with residual disease at repeat resection had an actuarial survival 23.1 % at 5 years versus a CS3 of 56.3 % in patients alive at 2 years (Δ = 33.2 %). CONCLUSIONS: CS provides a more accurate, dynamic estimate for survival, especially among high-risk patients. CS estimates can be used to accurately predict survival and guide clinical decision making.

The Development and Validation of an Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for the Prediction of First-Time Offending.

For prevention purposes, it is important that police officers can estimate the risk for delinquency among juveniles who were involved in a criminal offense, but not in the role of a suspect. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for First-Time Offending (Y-ARAT-FO) was developed based solely on police records with the aim to enable Dutch police officers to predict the risk for first-time offending. For the construction of this initial screening instrument, an Exhaustive Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector (Exhaustive CHAID) analysis was performed on a data set that was retrieved from the Dutch police system. The Y-ARAT-FO was developed on a sample of 1,368 juveniles and validated on a different sample of 886 juveniles showing moderate predictive accuracy in the validation sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = .728). The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT-FO was considered sufficient to justify its use as an initial screening instrument by the Dutch police.

Survival and local control rates of triple-negative breast cancer patients treated with boost-IOERT during breast-conserving surgery.

AIM: The purpose of this work was to retrospectively evaluate survival and local control rates of triple-negative breast cancer subtypes classified as five marker negative (5NP) and core basal (CB), respectively, after breast-conserving surgery and intraoperative boost radiotherapy with electrons (IOERT) followed by whole breast irradiation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A total of 71 patients with triple-negative breast cancer were enrolled, who were treated with lumpectomy, axillary lymph node dissection, and IOERT with 9.6 Gy (median Dmax) followed by normofractionated whole breast irradiation to median total doses of 54 Gy. Chemotherapy was applied in a neoadjuvant (12 %), adjuvant (75 %), or combinational setting (7 %). RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 97 months (range 4-170 months), 5 in-breast recurrences were detected (7.0 %). For all patients, 8-year actuarial rates for local control, metastases-free survival, disease-specific survival, and overall survival amounted to 89, 75, 80, and 69 %, respectively. All local recurrences occurred in grade 3 (G3) tumors irrespective of their specific immunohistochemical phenotype; thus, the local control rate for grades 1/2 (G1/2) was 100 % for both 5NP and CB, while for G3 it was 88 % for 5NP and 90 % for CB (p = 0.65 and 0.82, respectively, n.s.). For disease-specific survival, only the difference of the best-prognosis group 5-NP/G3 vs. the worst-prognosis cohort CB/G1/2 was statistically significant: 90 % vs. 54 % (p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Boost-IOERT provides acceptable long-term in-breast control in triple negative breast cancer. The best subgroup in terms of disease-specific survival was represented by 5NP in combination with tumor grading G3.

Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Partially Resected Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformations.

OBJECTIVE: Incomplete microsurgical resection of cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVM) occurs uncommonly. However, such patients harboring postoperative residual nidi remain exposed to the risk of AVM hemorrhage and are therefore reasonable candidates for further intervention. The goals of this retrospective case-control study are to analyze the radiosurgery outcomes for partially resected AVMs and determine the effect of prior resection on AVM radiosurgery outcomes. METHODS: We evaluated a prospective database of AVM patients treated with radiosurgery from 1989-2013. Previously resected AVMs with radiologic follow-up ≥2 years or nidus obliteration were selected for analysis and matched, in a 1:1 fashion and blinded to outcome, to previously unresected AVMs. Statistical analyses were performed to assess relationship between prior resection and AVM radiosurgery outcomes. RESULTS: The matching process yielded 88 patients in each of the previously resected and unresected AVM cohorts. In the resected AVM cohort, the actuarial AVM obliteration rates at 3 and 5 years were 47% and 75%, respectively; the rates of radiologic and symptomatic radiation-induced changes (RICs) were 10% and 3%, respectively; and the annual postradiosurgery hemorrhage risk was 1.1%. The lack of prior AVM resection (P < 0.001) and superficial AVM location (P = 0.009) were independent predictors of radiologic RIC. The actuarial rates of obliteration (P = 0.849) and postradiosurgery hemorrhage (P = 0.548) were not significantly different between the resected and unresected AVM cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Radiosurgery affords a reasonable risk-to-benefit profile for incompletely resected AVMs. For those with a small-volume residual nidus after resection, radiosurgery should be considered an effective alternative to repeat resection.

Discovering the truth about life after discharge: Long-term trauma-related mortality.

BACKGROUND: Outcome after traumatic injury has typically been limited to the determination at time of discharge or brief follow-up. This study investigates the natural history of long-term survival after trauma. METHODS: All highest-level activation patients prospectively enrolled in an ongoing cohort study from 2005 to 2012 were selected. To allow for long-term follow-up, patients had to be enrolled at least 1 year before the latest available data from the National Death Index (NDI, 2013). Time and cause of mortality was determined based on death certificates. Survival status was determined by the latest date of either care in our institution or NDI query. Kaplan-Meier curves were created stratified for Injury Severity Score (ISS). Survival was compared with estimated actuarial survival based on age, sex, and race. RESULTS: A total of 908 highest-level activation patients (median ISS, 18) were followed up for a median 1.7 years (interquartile range 1.0-2.9; maximum, 9.8 years). Survival data were available on 99.8%. Overall survival was 73% (663 of 908). For those with at least 2-year follow-up, survival was only 62% (317 of 509). Severity of injury predicted long-term survival (p < 0.0001) with those having ISS of 25 or greater with the poorest outcome (57% survival at 5 years). For all ISS groups, survival was worse than predicted actuarial survival (p < 0.001). When excluding early deaths (≤30 days), observed survival was still significantly lower than estimated actuarial survival (p < 0.002). Eighteen percent (44 of 245 deaths) of all deaths occurred after 30 days. Among late deaths, 53% occurred between 31 days and 1 year after trauma. Trauma-related mortality was the leading cause of postdischarge death, accounting for 43% of the late deaths. CONCLUSION: Postdischarge deaths represent a significant percentage of total trauma-related mortality. Despite having "survived" to leave the hospital, long-term survival was worse than predicted actuarial survival, suggesting that the mortality from injury does not end at "successful" hospital discharge. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic study, level III.

Very elderly (>80 years), frail patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer and comorbidities: is curative irradiation feasible?

PURPOSE: To evaluate clinical results in elderly and frail patients with bladder cancer treated with curative conformal irradiation alone. METHODS: The records of ambulatory frail elderly patients, age >80 years, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) >5, with invasive bladder cancer, were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were irradiated with curative intent. Acute and late toxicities were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 27 ambulatory patients were treated. Median age was 84.5 years and a median CCI of 6.5 was recorded. Median delivered radiation dose was 64 Gy. All patients completed the planned treatment. Grade 1-2 gastrointestinal (GI) and genitourinary (GU) toxicities were observed in 55.5% of patients (15/27). At the last follow-up, no late G3+ toxicities have been observed, with G1-2 toxicities reported in 11.1% of patients (3/27). Higher values of CCI were associated with higher acute GU/GI toxicities; there was a correlation between CCI and acute GU toxicity (r = 0.43, p = 0.027). The mean survival time was 23.5 months (95% confidence interval 20.9-26.1) and no median was reached. Locoregional disease-free events and metastasis-free survival showed a 2-year actuarial rate of 90% and 87%, respectively, with an actuarial 2-year overall survival of 84.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate safety and feasibility of curative radiation therapy in very elderly and frail patients with bladder cancer using 3D conformal radiation therapy.

Value and limits of non-robotic transoral oropharyngectomy for local control of T1-2 invasive squamous cell carcinoma of the tonsillar fossa.

BACKGROUND: An analysis of the value and limits of non-robotic transoral oropharyngectomy for local control of T1-2 squamous cell carcinoma of the tonsillar fossa. METHODS: A retrospective series of 111 T1 and 133 T2 (N0: 129; N1: 52; N2: 53; N3: 10). Induction chemotherapy and postoperative radiation therapy were used in 63.5% and 29.5% of cases, respectively. Actuarial analysis of local failure, impact of various variables upon local failure and consequences of local failure upon other oncological events and survival are documented. RESULTS: The 5-year actuarial local failure estimate was 10.4% and 14.2% for T1 and T2 tumors, respectively. The 5-year actuarial local failure estimate was significantly reduced when resection margins were safe or yielded dysplasia (P=0.008) and when induction chemotherapy achieved complete histologic regression (P=0.013). Salvage treatment achieved a 97.2% and 93.2% overall local control rate in T1 and T2 tumors, respectively. The 5-year actuarial nodal failure estimate was 35.1% in patients with local failure versus 10.8% without (P=0.0001). The 5-year actuarial metachronous second primary estimate was 7% in patients with local failure versus 33.2% without (P=0.016). The impact of local failure on survival (5-year actuarial survival estimate: 67.3% without and 46.4% with local failure) was not significant. CONCLUSION: In T1-2 squamous cell carcinoma of the tonsillar fossa, non-robotic transoral oropharyngectomy appeared to be highly effective in terms of local control. The high incidence of head and neck metachronous second primaries further advocates the use of this treatment option in order to reserve radiation therapy to such cases.

Prognostic Factors in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Less Than 3 Centimeters: Actuarial Analysis, Accumulative Incidence and Risk Groups.

INTRODUCTION: In TNM classification, factors determining the tumor (T) component in non-small cell lung cancer have scarcely changed over time and are still based solely on anatomical features. Our objective was to study the influence of these and other morphopathological factors on survival. METHODS: A total of 263 patients undergoing lung resection due to stage I non-small cell lung cancer ≤3cm in diameter were studied. A survival analysis and competing-risk estimate study was made on the basis of clinical, surgical and pathological variables using actuarial analysis and accumulative incidence methods, respectively. A risk model was then generated from the results. RESULTS: Survival at 5 and 10 years was 79.8 and 74.3%, respectively. The best prognostic factors were presence of symptoms, smoking habit and FEV1>60%, number of resected nodes>7, squamous histology, absence of vascular invasion, absence of visceral pleural invasion and presence of invasion more proximal than the lobar bronchus. All these were statistically significant according to the actuarial method. The factor "age<50 years" was close to the margin of statistical significance. Pleural invasion and vascular invasion were entered in the multivariate analysis. The competing-risk analysis showed a probability of death due to cancer of 14.3 and 35.1% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. Significant variables in the univariate and multivariate analyses were similar, with the exception of FEV1>60%. CONCLUSIONS: Pleural invasion and vascular invasion determine survival or risk of death due to non-small cell lung cancer ≤3cm and can be used for generating a predictive risk model.

When constitutional justice has the last word on health care: the case of Chile.

The Chilean health care system is in crisis. Since the recent ruling of the Constitutional Court that declared the risk rating (actuarial insurance) of private health insurers unconstitutional, all of the social actors related to health care have tried to agree on a legislative reform that would overcome the existing highly segmented and inequitable system, which is a legacy of Pinochet's dictatorship. Here we demonstrate how the social and political demands for legislative reform in the health care sector have been supported by the decisions of the courts. To achieve its goals of reducing equity gaps in health and ending the judicialization of health care (claims for protection represent almost 70% of total resources of the courts), the National Congress of Chile is trying to create a new national health insurance system that guarantees the right to a minimum level of health care. Part of this effort involves obtaining the constitutional approval of the courts. In Chile, justice has the final word on health care.